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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/06 11:34
Economic Pressure Sends the Livestock Complex Retreating
A few more cash cattle sales have been reported in Kansas at steady money
with the week's trend, but largely it's looking like the week's trade is done
with.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's a doggish day for the livestock complex as economic pressures have the
commodity markets trading lower. A few more cash cattle sales could develop,
but largely it's looking like the bulk of the week's business is done with.
December corn is down 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.10.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 379.51 points.
The weekly export report shared that beef net sales of 16,500 mt for 2024
were down 4% from the previous week and 7% from the prior 4-week average. The
three largest buyers were Japan (7,700 mt), Taiwan (2,100 mt) and South Korea
(1,600 mt). Pork net sales of 20,800 mt for 2024 were down 51% from the
previous week and 29% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers
were Mexico (10,000 mt), Colombia (1,900 mt) and Japan (1,600 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is enduring another day of noticeable down pressure
as traders continue to feel the pressures of a stressed economy and are
slightly disappointed by the week's cash cattle trade. On the bright side,
thankfully the market hasn't pressured current support planes, even though the
week's descent late this week has been significant. October live cattle are
down $1.15 at $176.10, December live cattle are down $1.45 at $175.27 and
February live cattle are down $1.35 at $175.95. A handful of cattle sold this
morning for $181 in Kansas, which is steady with the bulk of this week's trade.
Thus far throughout the week Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $181
which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed
cattle have traded or mostly $288 which is also $2.00 lower than last week's
weighted average. But with the Down currently down over 300 points and boxed
beef prices lower at midday, it's likely that the live cattle complex will
close lower this afternoon.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.92 ($309.59) and select down
$0.98 ($295.80) with a movement of 86 loads (65.91 loads of choice, 8.59 loads
of select, zero loads of trim and 11.69 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
And of course, with the live cattle complex trading lower, the feeder cattle
market is trading even lower. September feeders are down $2.40 at $234.72,
October feeders are down $3.02 at $231.57 and November feeders are down $3.10
at $228.57. What's especially concerning about the drop in the feeder cattle
complex is that in spot October contract, traders are nearing support
thresholds which if the market closes beneath those price points could signal
even more widespread pressure next week as a new technical bottom will be
looked for.
LEAN HOGS:
Between the widespread pressure that is currently driving the vast majority
of the commodity markets lower, to the mixed consumer support in which pork
cutout values this week -- the lean hog complex has also take a break from its
upward trek to join the downward tumble in the commodity sector. October lean
hogs are down $0.70 at $80.00, December lean hogs are down $0.37 at $71.67 and
February lean hogs are down $0.12 at $75.12. Exports were down this morning,
but it's important to remember that last week's demand was significant and here
over the last couple of months exports have been either feast or famine.
The projected lean hog index for 9/5/2024 is down $0.19 at $86.24, but the
actual lean hog index for 9/4/2024 is up $0.16 at $86.43. Hog prices are lower
on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.83 with a weighted average
price of $76.87, ranging from $67.00 to $78.00 on 1,899 head and a five-day
rolling average of $78.14. Pork cutouts total 174.84 loads with 148.06 loads of
pork cuts and 26.78 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.27, $96.14.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
**
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